Airway clearance management in people with bronchiectasis: data from the European Bronchiectasis Registry (EMBARC).

BACKGROUND: International guidelines recommend airway clearance management as one of the important pillars of bronchiectasis treatment. However, the extent to which airway clearance is used for people with bronchiectasis in Europe is unclear. The aim of the study was to identify the use of airway clearance management in patients with bronchiectasis across different countries and factors influencing airway clearance use. METHODS: Prospective observational study using data from the EMBARC Registry between January 2015 and April 2022. Pre-specified options for airway clearance management were recorded, including airway clearance techniques, devices and use of mucoactive drugs. RESULTS: 16 723 people with bronchiectasis from 28 countries were included in the study. Mean age was 67 years (interquartile range 57-74 years, range 18-100 years) and 61% were females. Seventy-two percent of the participants reported daily sputum expectoration and 52% (95% CI 51-53%) of all participants reported using regular airway clearance management. Active cycle of breathing technique was used by 28% of the patients and airway clearance devices by 16% of participants. The frequency of airway clearance management and techniques used varied significantly between different countries. Patients who used airway clearance management had greater disease severity and worse symptoms, including a higher daily sputum volume compared to those who did not use it regularly. Mucoactive drugs were also more likely to be used in patients with more severe disease. Access to specialist respiratory physiotherapy was low throughout Europe, but particularly low in Eastern Europe. CONCLUSIONS: Only half of the people with bronchiectasis in Europe use airway clearance management. Use and access to devices, mucoactive drugs and specialist chest physiotherapy appears to be limited in many European countries.

Objective sputum colour assessment and clinical outcomes in bronchiectasis: data from the European Bronchiectasis Registry (EMBARC).

BACKGROUND: A validated 4-point sputum colour chart can be used to objectively evaluate the levels of airway inflammation in bronchiectasis patients. In the European Bronchiectasis Registry (EMBARC), we tested whether sputum colour would be associated with disease severity and clinical outcomes. METHODS: We used a prospective, observational registry of adults with bronchiectasis conducted in 31 countries. Patients who did not produce spontaneous sputum were excluded from the analysis. The Murray sputum colour chart was used at baseline and at follow-up visits. Key outcomes were frequency of exacerbations, hospitalisations for severe exacerbations and mortality during up to 5-year follow-up. RESULTS: 13 484 patients were included in the analysis. More purulent sputum was associated with lower forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), worse quality of life, greater bacterial infection and a higher bronchiectasis severity index. Sputum colour was strongly associated with the risk of future exacerbations during follow-up. Compared to patients with mucoid sputum (reference group), patients with mucopurulent sputum experienced significantly more exacerbations (incident rate ratio (IRR) 1.29, 95% CI 1.22-1.38; p<0.0001), while the rates were even higher for patients with purulent (IRR 1.55, 95% CI 1.44-1.67; p<0.0001) and severely purulent sputum (IRR 1.91, 95% CI 1.52-2.39; p<0.0001). Hospitalisations for severe exacerbations were also associated with increasing sputum colour with rate ratios, compared to patients with mucoid sputum, of 1.41 (95% CI 1.29-1.56; p<0.0001), 1.98 (95% CI 1.77-2.21; p<0.0001) and 3.05 (95% CI 2.25-4.14; p<0.0001) for mucopurulent, purulent and severely purulent sputum, respectively. Mortality was significantly increased with increasing sputum purulence, hazard ratio 1.12 (95% CI 1.01-1.24; p=0.027), for each increment in sputum purulence. CONCLUSION: Sputum colour is a simple marker of disease severity and future risk of exacerbations, severe exacerbations and mortality in patients with bronchiectasis.

K-Means Clustering Identifies Diverse Clinical Phenotypes in COVID-19 Patients: Implications for Mortality Risks and Remdesivir Impact.

INTRODUCTION: The impact of remdesivir on mortality in patients with COVID-19 is still controversial. We aimed to identify clinical phenotype clusters of COVID-19 hospitalized patients with highest benefit from remdesivir use and validate these findings in an external cohort. METHODS: We included consecutive patients hospitalized between February 2020 and February 2021 for COVID-19. The derivation cohort comprised subjects admitted to Hospital Clinic of Barcelona. The validation cohort included patients from Hospital Universitari Mutua de Terrassa (Terrassa) and Hospital Universitari La Fe (Valencia), all tertiary centers in Spain. We employed K-means clustering to group patients according to reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) cycle threshold (Ct) values and lymphocyte counts at diagnosis, and pre-test symptom duration. The impact of remdesivir on 60-day mortality in each cluster was assessed. RESULTS: A total of 1160 patients (median age 66, interquartile range (IQR) 55-78) were included. We identified five clusters, with mortality rates ranging from 0 to 36.7%. Highest mortality rate was observed in the cluster including patients with shorter pre-test symptom duration, lower lymphocyte counts, and lower Ct values at diagnosis. The absence of remdesivir administration was associated with worse outcome in the high-mortality cluster (10.5% vs. 36.7%; p < 0.001), comprising subjects with higher viral loads. These results were validated in an external multicenter cohort of 981 patients. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with COVID-19 exhibit varying mortality rates across different clinical phenotypes. K-means clustering aids in identifying patients who derive the greatest mortality benefit from remdesivir use.

Clustering COVID-19 ARDS patients through the first days of ICU admission. An analysis of the CIBERESUCICOVID Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) can be classified into sub-phenotypes according to different inflammatory/clinical status. Prognostic enrichment was achieved by grouping patients into hypoinflammatory or hyperinflammatory sub-phenotypes, even though the time of analysis may change the classification according to treatment response or disease evolution. We aimed to evaluate when patients can be clustered in more than 1 group, and how they may change the clustering of patients using data of baseline or day 3, and the prognosis of patients according to their evolution by changing or not the cluster. METHODS: Multicenter, observational prospective, and retrospective study of patients admitted due to ARDS related to COVID-19 infection in Spain. Patients were grouped according to a clustering mixed-type data algorithm (k-prototypes) using continuous and categorical readily available variables at baseline and day 3. RESULTS: Of 6205 patients, 3743 (60%) were included in the study. According to silhouette analysis, patients were grouped in two clusters. At baseline, 1402 (37%) patients were included in cluster 1 and 2341(63%) in cluster 2. On day 3, 1557(42%) patients were included in cluster 1 and 2086 (57%) in cluster 2. The patients included in cluster 2 were older and more frequently hypertensive and had a higher prevalence of shock, organ dysfunction, inflammatory biomarkers, and worst respiratory indexes at both time points. The 90-day mortality was higher in cluster 2 at both clustering processes (43.8% [n = 1025] versus 27.3% [n = 383] at baseline, and 49% [n = 1023] versus 20.6% [n = 321] on day 3). Four hundred and fifty-eight (33%) patients clustered in the first group were clustered in the second group on day 3. In contrast, 638 (27%) patients clustered in the second group were clustered in the first group on day 3. CONCLUSIONS: During the first days, patients can be clustered into two groups and the process of clustering patients may change as they continue to evolve. This means that despite a vast majority of patients remaining in the same cluster, a minority reaching 33% of patients analyzed may be re-categorized into different clusters based on their progress. Such changes can significantly impact their prognosis.

Bronchiectasis and asthma: Data from the European Bronchiectasis Registry (EMBARC).

BACKGROUND: Asthma is commonly reported in patients with a diagnosis of bronchiectasis. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate whether patients with bronchiectasis and asthma (BE+A) had a different clinical phenotype and different outcomes compared with patients with bronchiectasis without concomitant asthma. METHODS: A prospective observational pan-European registry (European Multicentre Bronchiectasis Audit and Research Collaboration) enrolled patients across 28 countries. Adult patients with computed tomography-confirmed bronchiectasis were reviewed at baseline and annual follow-up visits using an electronic case report form. Asthma was diagnosed by the local investigator. Follow-up data were used to explore differences in exacerbation frequency between groups using a negative binomial regression model. Survival analysis used Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Of 16,963 patients with bronchiectasis included for analysis, 5,267 (31.0%) had investigator-reported asthma. Patients with BE+A were younger, were more likely to be female and never smokers, and had a higher body mass index than patients with bronchiectasis without asthma. BE+A was associated with a higher prevalence of rhinosinusitis and nasal polyps as well as eosinophilia and Aspergillus sensitization. BE+A had similar microbiology but significantly lower severity of disease using the bronchiectasis severity index. Patients with BE+A were at increased risk of exacerbation after adjustment for disease severity and multiple confounders. Inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) use was associated with reduced mortality in patients with BE+A (adjusted hazard ratio 0.78, 95% CI 0.63-0.95) and reduced risk of hospitalization (rate ratio 0.67, 95% CI 0.67-0.86) compared with control subjects without asthma and not receiving ICSs. CONCLUSIONS: BE+A was common and was associated with an increased risk of exacerbations and improved outcomes with ICS use. Unexpectedly we identified significantly lower mortality in patients with BE+A.

Cost-sensitive ordinal classification methods to predict SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia severity.

OBJECTIVE: To study the suitability of costsensitive ordinal artificial intelligence-machine learning (AIML) strategies in the prognosis of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia severity. MATERIALS & METHODS: Observational, retrospective, longitudinal, cohort study in 4 hospitals in Spain. Information regarding demographic and clinical status was supplemented by socioeconomic data and air pollution exposures. We proposed AI-ML algorithms for ordinal classification via ordinal decomposition and for cost-sensitive learning via resampling techniques. For performance-based model selection, we defined a custom score including per-class sensitivities and asymmetric misprognosis costs. 260 distinct AI-ML models were evaluated via 10 repetitions of 5×5 nested cross-validation with hyperparameter tuning. Model selection was followed by the calibration of predicted probabilities. Final overall performance was compared against five well-established clinical severity scores and against a 'standard' (non-cost sensitive, non-ordinal) AI-ML baseline. In our best model, we also evaluated its explainability with respect to each of the input variables. RESULTS: The study enrolled n = 1548 patients: 712 experienced low, 238 medium, and 598 high clinical severity. d = 131 variables were collected, becoming d ' = 148 features after categorical encoding. Model selection resulted in our best-performing AI-ML pipeline having: a) no imputation of missing data, b) no feature selection (i.e. using the full set of d ' features), c) 'Ordered Partitions' ordinal decomposition, d) cost-based reimbalance, and e) a Histogram-based Gradient Boosting classifier. This best model (calibrated) obtained a median accuracy of 68.1% [67.3%, 68.8%] (95% confidence interval), a balanced accuracy of 57.0% [55.6%, 57.9%], and an overall area under the curve (AUC) 0.802 [0.795, 0.808]. In our dataset, it outperformed all five clinical severity scores and the 'standard' AI-ML baseline. DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION: We conducted an exhaustive exploration of AI-ML methods designed for both ordinal and cost-sensitive classification, motivated by a real-world application domain (clinical severity prognosis) in which these topics arise naturally. Our model with the best classification performance exploited successfully the ordering information of ground truth classes, coping with imbalance and asymmetric costs. However, these ordinal and cost-sensitive aspects are seldom explored in the literature.

Treatment Failure and Clinical Stability in Severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia.

Treatment failure and clinical stability are important outcomes in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). It is essential to know the causes and risk factors for treatment failure and delay in reaching clinical stability in CAP. The study of both as well as the associated underlying mechanisms and host response are key to improving outcomes in pneumonia.

The Association Between Bronchiectasis and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Data from the European Bronchiectasis Registry (EMBARC).

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVE: Bronchiectasis and COPD are associated conditions but misdiagnosis is believed to be common. A recently published international consensus definition of bronchiectasis (BE) and COPD association: The ROSE criteria (radiological bronchiectasis(R), obstruction: FEV1/FVC ratio<0.7 (O), symptoms (S) and exposure:≥10 pack year smoking (E) allows objective diagnosis of the BE-COPD association. METHODS: Analysis of the EMBARC registry, a prospective observational study of patients with CT confirmed bronchiectasis from 28 countries. The ROSE criteria were used to objectively defined BE-COPD association. Key outcomes during up to 5-years follow-up were exacerbations, hospitalization and mortality. MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS: 16730 patients with bronchiectasis were included. 4336 had a co-diagnosis of COPD and these patients had more exacerbations, worse quality of life and higher severity scores. We observed marked overdiagnosis of COPD using the ROSE criteria: 22.2% of patients with a diagnosis of COPD did not have airflow obstruction and 31.9% did not have a history of ≥10 pack years smoking. Therefore the proportion meeting the ROSE criteria for COPD was 2157 (55.4%). Compared to patients without COPD, patients meeting ROSE criteria had increased risk of exacerbations and exacerbations resulting in hospitalisation during follow-up (IRR 1.25 95%CI 1.15-1.35 and 1.69 95%CI 1.51-1.90 respectively) but patients with a diagnosis of COPD who did not meet ROSE criteria also had increased risk of exacerbations. CONCLUSIONS: The label of COPD is often applied to bronchiectasis patients without objective evidence of airflow obstruction and smoking history. Patients with a clinical label of COPD have worse clinical outcomes.

Ten Issues for Updating in Community-Acquired Pneumonia: An Expert Review.

Community-acquired pneumonia represents the third-highest cause of mortality in industrialized countries and the first due to infection. Although guidelines for the approach to this infection model are widely implemented in international health schemes, information continually emerges that generates controversy or requires updating its management. This paper reviews the most important issues in the approach to this process, such as an aetiologic update using new molecular platforms or imaging techniques, including the diagnostic stewardship in different clinical settings. It also reviews both the Intensive Care Unit admission criteria and those of clinical stability to discharge. An update in antibiotic, in oxygen, or steroidal therapy is presented. It also analyzes the management out-of-hospital in CAP requiring hospitalization, the main factors for readmission, and an approach to therapeutic failure or rescue. Finally, the main strategies for prevention and vaccination in both immunocompetent and immunocompromised hosts are reviewed.

Pneumococcal Serotypes Associated with Community-Acquired Pneumonia Hospitalizations in Adults in Spain, 2016-2020: The CAPA Study.

Newer higher valency pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have the potential to reduce the adult community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) burden. We describe the evolution and distribution of adult community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) serotypes in Spain, focusing on serotypes contained in the 20-valent PCV (PCV20). This was a prospective, observational study of chest X-ray (CXR)-confirmed CAP in immunocompetent adults hospitalized in one of four Spanish hospitals between November 2016 and November 2020. Pneumococci were isolated from cultures and detected in urine using BinaxNow® and Pfizer serotype-specific urinary antigen tests UAD1 and UAD2. We included 1948 adults hospitalized with CXR-CAP. The median age was 69.0 years (IQR: 24 years). At least one comorbidity was present in 84.8% (n = 1653) of patients. At admission, 76.1% of patients had complicated pneumonia. Pneumococcus was identified in 34.9% (n = 680) of study participants. The PCV20 vaccine-type CAP occurred in 23.9% (n = 465) of all patients, 68.4% (n = 465) of patients with pneumococcal CAP, and 82.2% (83/101) of patients who had pneumococcus identified by culture. Serotypes 8 (n = 153; 7.9% of all CAP) and 3 (n = 152; 7.8% of all CAP) were the most frequently identified. Pneumococcus is a common cause of hospitalized CAP among Spanish adults and serotypes contained in PCV20 caused the majority of pneumococcal CAP.

Persistent Respiratory Failure and Re-Admission in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Following Hospitalization for COVID-19.

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been associated with worse clinical evolution/survival during a hospitalization for SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19). The objective of this study was to learn the situation of these patients at discharge as well as the risk of re-admission/mortality in the following 12 months. Methods: We carried out a subanalysis of the RECOVID registry. A multicenter, observational study that retrospectively collected data on severe acute COVID-19 episodes and follow-up visits for up to a year in survivors. The data collection protocol includes general demographic data, smoking, comorbidities, pharmacological treatment, infection severity, complications during hospitalization and required treatment. At discharge, resting oxygen saturation (SpO2), dyspnea according to the mMRC (modified Medical Research Council) scale and long-term oxygen therapy prescription were recorded. The follow-up database included the clinical management visits at 6 and 12 months, where re-admission and mortality were recorded. Results: A total of 2047 patients were included (5.6% had a COPD diagnosis). At discharge, patients with COPD had greater dyspnea and a greater need for prescription home oxygen. After adjusting for age, sex and Charlson comorbidity index, patients with COPD had a greater risk of hospital re-admission due to respiratory causes (HR 2.57 [1.35-4.89], p = 0.004), with no significant differences in survival. Conclusion: Patients with COPD who overcome a serious SARS-CoV2 infection show a worse clinical situation at discharge and a greater risk of re-admission for respiratory causes.

Is the long-term mortality similar in COVID-19 and community-acquired pneumonia?

Introduction: There are no data on the association of type of pneumonia and long-term mortality by the type of pneumonia (COVID-19 or community-acquired pneumonia [CAP]) on long-term mortality after an adjustment for potential confounding variables. We aimed to assess the type of pneumonia and risk factors for long-term mortality in patients who were hospitalized in conventional ward and later discharged. Methods: Retrospective analysis of two prospective and multicentre cohorts of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and CAP. The main outcome under study was 1-year mortality in hospitalized patients in conventional ward and later discharged. We adjusted a Bayesian logistic regression model to assess associations between the type of pneumonia and 1-year mortality controlling for confounders. Results: The study included a total of 1,693 and 2,374 discharged patients in the COVID-19 and CAP cohorts, respectively. Of these, 1,525 (90.1%) and 2,249 (95%) patients underwent analysis. Until 1-year follow-up, 69 (4.5%) and 148 (6.6%) patients from the COVID-19 and CAP cohorts, respectively, died (p = 0.008). However, the Bayesian model showed a low probability of effect (PE) of finding relevant differences in long-term mortality between CAP and COVID-19 (odds ratio 1.127, 95% credibility interval 0.862-1.591; PE = 0.774). Conclusion: COVID-19 and CAP have similar long-term mortality after adjusting for potential confounders.

Endothelial Damage, Neutrophil Extracellular Traps and Platelet Activation in COVID-19 vs. Community-Acquired Pneumonia: A Case-Control Study.

COVID-19 has been a diagnostic and therapeutic challenge. It has marked a paradigm shift when considering other types of pneumonia etiology. We analyzed the biomarkers related to endothelial damage and immunothrombosis in COVID-19 in comparison to community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) through a case-control study of 358 patients with pneumonia (179 hospitalized with COVID-19 vs. 179 matched hospitalized with CAP). Endothelial damage markers (endothelin and proadrenomedullin), neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) (citrullinated-3 histone, cell-free DNA), and platelet activation (soluble P-selectin) were measured. In-hospital and 1-year follow-up outcomes were evaluated. Endothelial damage, platelet activation, and NET biomarkers are significantly higher in CAP compared to COVID-19. In-hospital mortality in COVID-19 was higher compared to CAP whereas 1-year mortality and cardiovascular complications were higher in CAP. In the univariate analysis (OR 95% CIs), proADM and endothelin were associated with in-hospital mortality (proADM: CAP 3.210 [1.698-6.070], COVID-19 8.977 [3.413-23.609]; endothelin: CAP 1.014 [1.006-1.022], COVID-19 1.024 [1.014-1.034]), in-hospital CVE (proADM: CAP 1.623 [1.080-2.439], COVID-19 2.146 [1.186-3.882]; endothelin: CAP 1.005 [1.000-1.010], COVID-19 1.010 [1.003-1.018]), and 1-year mortality (proADM: CAP 2.590 [1.644-4.080], COVID-19 13.562 [4.872-37.751]; endothelin: CAP 1.008 [1.003-1.013], COVID-19 1.026 [1.016-1.037]). In conclusion, COVID-19 and CAP showed different expressions of endothelial damage and NETs. ProADM and endothelin are associated with short- and long-term mortality.

Procalcitonin and C-reactive protein to rule out early bacterial coinfection in COVID-19 critically ill patients.

PURPOSE: Although the prevalence of community-acquired respiratory bacterial coinfection upon hospital admission in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been reported to be < 5%, almost three-quarters of patients received antibiotics. We aim to investigate whether procalcitonin (PCT) or C-reactive protein (CRP) upon admission could be helpful biomarkers to identify bacterial coinfection among patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. METHODS: We carried out a multicentre, observational cohort study including consecutive COVID-19 patients admitted to 55 Spanish intensive care units (ICUs). The primary outcome was to explore whether PCT or CRP serum levels upon hospital admission could predict bacterial coinfection among patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. The secondary outcome was the evaluation of their association with mortality. We also conducted subgroups analyses in higher risk profile populations. RESULTS: Between 5 February 2020 and 21 December 2021, 4076 patients were included, 133 (3%) of whom presented bacterial coinfection. PCT and CRP had low area under curve (AUC) scores at the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis [0.57 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51-0.61) and 0.6 (95% CI, 0.55-0.64), respectively], but high negative predictive values (NPV) [97.5% (95% CI 96.5-98.5) and 98.2% (95% CI 97.5-98.9) for PCT and CRP, respectively]. CRP alone was associated with bacterial coinfection (OR 2, 95% CI 1.25-3.19; p = 0.004). The overall 15, 30 and 90 days mortality had a higher trend in the bacterial coinfection group, but without significant difference. PCT ≥ 0.12 ng/mL was associated with higher 90 days mortality. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that measurements of PCT and CRP, alone and at a single time point, are not useful for ruling in or out bacterial coinfection in viral pneumonia by COVID-19.

Expert Consensus: Main Risk Factors for Poor Prognosis in COVID-19 and the Implications for Targeted Measures against SARS-CoV-2.

The clinical evolution of patients infected with the Severe Acute Respiratory Coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) depends on the complex interplay between viral and host factors. The evolution to less aggressive but better-transmitted viral variants, and the presence of immune memory responses in a growing number of vaccinated and/or virus-exposed individuals, has caused the pandemic to slowly wane in virulence. However, there are still patients with risk factors or comorbidities that put them at risk of poor outcomes in the event of having the coronavirus infectious disease 2019 (COVID-19). Among the different treatment options for patients with COVID-19, virus-targeted measures include antiviral drugs or monoclonal antibodies that may be provided in the early days of infection. The present expert consensus is based on a review of all the literature published between 1 July 2021 and 15 February 2022 that was carried out to establish the characteristics of patients, in terms of presence of risk factors or comorbidities, that may make them candidates for receiving any of the virus-targeted measures available in order to prevent a fatal outcome, such as severe disease or death. A total of 119 studies were included from the review of the literature and 159 were from the additional independent review carried out by the panelists a posteriori. Conditions found related to strong recommendation of the use of virus-targeted measures in the first days of COVID-19 were age above 80 years, or above 65 years with another risk factor; antineoplastic chemotherapy or active malignancy; HIV infection with CD4+ cell counts < 200/mm3; and treatment with anti-CD20 immunosuppressive drugs. There is also a strong recommendation against using the studied interventions in HIV-infected patients with a CD4+ nadir <200/mm3 or treatment with other immunosuppressants. Indications of therapies against SARS-CoV-2, regardless of vaccination status or history of infection, may still exist for some populations, even after COVID-19 has been declared to no longer be a global health emergency by the WHO.

A blood microRNA classifier for the prediction of ICU mortality in COVID-19 patients: a multicenter validation study.

BACKGROUND: The identification of critically ill COVID-19 patients at risk of fatal outcomes remains a challenge. Here, we first validated candidate microRNAs (miRNAs) as biomarkers for clinical decision-making in critically ill patients. Second, we constructed a blood miRNA classifier for the early prediction of adverse outcomes in the ICU. METHODS: This was a multicenter, observational and retrospective/prospective study including 503 critically ill patients admitted to the ICU from 19 hospitals. qPCR assays were performed in plasma samples collected within the first 48 h upon admission. A 16-miRNA panel was designed based on recently published data from our group. RESULTS: Nine miRNAs were validated as biomarkers of all-cause in-ICU mortality in the independent cohort of critically ill patients (FDR < 0.05). Cox regression analysis revealed that low expression levels of eight miRNAs were associated with a higher risk of death (HR from 1.56 to 2.61). LASSO regression for variable selection was used to construct a miRNA classifier. A 4-blood miRNA signature composed of miR-16-5p, miR-192-5p, miR-323a-3p and miR-451a predicts the risk of all-cause in-ICU mortality (HR 2.5). Kaplan‒Meier analysis confirmed these findings. The miRNA signature provides a significant increase in the prognostic capacity of conventional scores, APACHE-II (C-index 0.71, DeLong test p-value 0.055) and SOFA (C-index 0.67, DeLong test p-value 0.001), and a risk model based on clinical predictors (C-index 0.74, DeLong test-p-value 0.035). For 28-day and 90-day mortality, the classifier also improved the prognostic value of APACHE-II, SOFA and the clinical model. The association between the classifier and mortality persisted even after multivariable adjustment. The functional analysis reported biological pathways involved in SARS-CoV infection and inflammatory, fibrotic and transcriptional pathways. CONCLUSIONS: A blood miRNA classifier improves the early prediction of fatal outcomes in critically ill COVID-19 patients.